The dependence of European businesses on American cloud services is now a major strategic issue. According to a recent study, this technological dependence is costing the European economy 264 billion euros a year.
Beyond the simple financial cost, this situation raises issues of digital sovereignty, data control, IT infrastructure resilience and long-term competitiveness. For SMEs and major groups alike, the cloud has become a strategic pillar, but also a factor of structural dependency.
Structural technological dependence on the American cloud
The world's leading cloud providers are American. This dominance is leading to market concentration and increased dependence of European businesses on infrastructure, software and platforms from outside their jurisdiction.
A ground-breaking study quantifies the impact of US software on the European economy
Europe is facing a technological dependence critical of US cloud services and US software. An economic study carried out by Asterès in April 2025 for Cigref reveals for the first time the extent of this situation: 264 billion euros spent annually by companies in the’European Union with American actors.
This dependence on US cloud services represents around 1.5 % of European GDP and is virtually equivalent to the continent's energy bill (360 billion euros in 2024). In the current context of digital transformation company, This situation poses major strategic questions for the European digital sovereignty.
Methodology: how to measure European technological dependence
Given the inadequacy of official commercial data, the Asterès study has developed an innovative approach combining :
- Interviews with six Chief Information Officers (CIOs) major French companies
- Analysis of the size of the European cloud software market (estimated at between 300 and 550 billion euros)
- Economic modelling using the Asterès Impact Model (AIM)
This methodology makes it possible to overcome the shortcomings of official statistics, which are distorted by Ireland's preponderance in the trade flows of cloud services.
83 % of European cloud software spending captured by the United States
Today, around 83 % of European spending on cloud services and software is captured by US companies. This concentration illustrates the structural domination of US hyperscalers and publishers over the strategic digital infrastructures used daily by European businesses.
European businesses spend 2.2 % of their turnover on cloud services
Interviews conducted by Asterès reveal that cloud software expenses represent on average 2.2 % of sales of large European companies. For VSEs and SMEs, this ratio is estimated at around 1.1 %, reflecting a lower level of digitalisation.
This proportion translates into :
- 66 billion euros a year for French companies
- 400 billion euros for the entire’European Union
These figures confirm the strategic importance of the’AI adoption in business and cloud services in the modern economy.
American domination: AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud in the lead
On these 400 billion euros of total expenditure, 83 % are addressed to American companies, the famous 264 billion euros that benefit the US economy.
This dominance can be explained by :
- The absence of European players among the eight largest companies in cloud computing worldwide
- The American technological lead in large language models (LLM) and the’architecture Transform
- The mature ecosystem of the’Generative AI and AI agents developed across the Atlantic
For Belgian SMEs committed to their digital transformation, This is reflected in our almost total dependence on Microsoft, Amazon and Google.
80 % of value created in the United States: the challenge of localisation
Among the 264 billion euros spent on American players, approximately 80 % of value added is actually created in the United States, or 211 billion euros which feed directly into the US economy.
The remaining 20 % correspond to local activities (support, marketing) carried out by European subsidiaries, whose profits are then repatriated.
Economic impact: 1.9 million American jobs financed by Europe
Europe's dependence on American cloud and software services does not just translate into a massive flow of money. It also has a direct impact on international employment and value creation. European IT spending is estimated to help fund nearly 1.9 million jobs in the United States.
The total economic footprint of the cloud software sector in the United States
The Asterès Impact Model (AIM) is used to calculate the’total economic footprint from US cloud services exported to Europe :
Direct effects :
- 285 billion dollars in sales
- 808,000 jobs direct
- 186 billion of added value
- 51 billion dollars in tax and social security revenue
Indirect and induced effects :
- 224 billion dollars of additional sales
- 1.135 million jobs indirect and induced
- 137 billion dollars of additional added value
- 38 billion dollars of public revenue
1.9 million jobs: 1.2 % of total US employment
In total, European purchases of cloud services generate 1.943 million jobs in the United States, representing 1.2 % of total US employment and 1.1 % of US GDP ($323 billion in added value).
This economic footprint demonstrates the strategic importance of the European market for the US digital industry and the scale of the wealth transfer underway.
Untapped cloud potential: up to 463,000 possible European jobs
If a proportion of cloud and software investments were redirected towards European players, the potential for local value creation would be considerable. According to some estimates, up to 463,000 jobs could be generated or supported within the European Union.
Scenario 1: capturing 5 % of the market = 178,000 European jobs
If Europe succeeded in developing an industry capable of capturing 5 % of expenditure currently addressed to the United States, the impact would be significant:
- 178,000 jobs created (94,000 direct + 84,000 indirect/induced)
- 12 billion euros of added value (0.1 % of European GDP)
- 5 billion euros of public revenue
- 25 billion euros of total sales
This first stage would represent a realistic entry point for developing the European digital sovereignty.
Scenario 2: 10 % in 2030 = 331,000 jobs and productivity gains
By 2030, if Europe were to double its market share at 10 %, the benefits would grow:
- 331,000 jobs created
- 24 billion euros of additional GDP (0.1 % of European GDP)
- 11 billion euros in tax revenue
- 50 billion euros in sales
This increase in power would make it possible to create a viable ecosystem of’agentic artificial intelligence and’intelligent automation company.
Scenario 3: 15 % in 2035 = 463,000 jobs and strategic autonomy
The most ambitious scenario, up to 2035, with 15 % market share :
- 463,000 jobs (0.2 % of total EU employment)
- 37 billion euros of value added (0.2 % of GDP)
- 16 billion euros of public revenue
- 75 billion euros in sales
- 100 billion euros improvement in the balance of payments
This level would provide the critical mass needed to develop European champions in the cloud computing and the’Generative AI.
Spiralling prices: +10 % per year exacerbates dependency
In addition to the overall volume of spending, another factor is accentuating Europe's dependence: the steady increase in the price of cloud and software services, estimated at around +10 % per year.
Rising licences, changing pricing models, more complex pay-per-use invoicing, options that have become chargeable... Costs often rise without companies proportionately increasing the value they generate.
Vendor lock-in: why prices soar without competition
The professionals surveyed report annual price increases of 10 % on average, with extreme cases reaching 18 % to 300 % according to sector studies. This phenomenon can be explained by :
- The technical difficulty of changing service provider once the systems have been integrated
- Tying practices (bundling of unrequested services)
- The absence of a credible European alternative
- Prohibitive migration costs
For Belgian companies making extensive use of cloud computing in their digital transformation, These increases represent a growing threat to their competitiveness.
2035 projection: €421 billion in US exports
If the upward trend in 10 % per year is holding steady US exports of cloud software services to Europe would reach 421 billion euros in 2035, i.e. :
- A 1.6-fold increase compared with the current level
- An improvement in the US current account balance by more than a third
- An equivalent deterioration in the European balance of payments
This projection illustrates the urgent need to develop European alternatives to avoid a growing economic haemorrhage.
Productivity: Europe lags behind by 1.2 % of potential GDP
Technological dependence is not just a budgetary or industrial issue. It would also have a direct impact on European productivity.
Some analyses estimate that the lack of digital autonomy and the weak structuring of a local technological ecosystem could account for up to 1.2 % of unfulfilled potential GDP.
In the United States, the digital sector is 70 % more productive than the rest of the economy
The comparative analysis reveals a major difference of productivity :
United States:
- Digital sector productivity : +70 % above of the economic average
- 230,000 in added value per job in the IT sector
- Significant contribution to productivity global economy
Europe :
- Digital sector productivity : equivalent to the economic average
- No knock-on effect on productivity global
- Technology lag offset by other sectors
1.2 % potential productivity gains for Europe
If Europe were to develop a cloud-software as productive as that of the United States, the gain in productivity is estimated at 1,2 % :
- Increase of 70 % of productivity in Europe's digital sector
- Multiplier effect on the economy as a whole
- Improving competitiveness against international competitors
The Draghi report had already identified this digital lag as the main cause of Europe's productivity lag since 1995.
Digital sovereignty: the geopolitical challenges of cloud dependency
Digital sovereignty does not mean technological autarky. It implies the ability to choose, control and arbitrate one's dependencies. For European organisations, this means thinking strategically about IT architecture: supplier diversification, hybrid models, sovereign cloud, data interoperability and reversibility.
Technological dependence as a lever for geopolitical pressure
Beyond the economic stakes, the dependence on US cloud services involves major geopolitical risks:
- Potential threat of access being cut off in the event of trade tensions
- Extraterritoriality of US law (Cloud Act, sanctions)
- Access to data by US authorities stored on US servers
- Strategic vulnerability Europe's critical infrastructures
In the current context of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, these risks are no longer theoretical. The United States has a considerable pressure lever on Europe.
Ireland: a tax hub that distorts statistics
The Irish case illustrates the complexity of the technological dependence :
- 194 billion Irish trade surplus in IT services (35 % of GDP)
- Accounting location tax optimisation activities
- Impossible to trace the real origin of trade flows
- Distortion of European statistics preventing precise analysis
This situation complicates any attempt to accurately measure the dependence on US cloud services and justifies Asterès' innovative methodological approach.
Progressive adoption strategy: from diagnosis to action
Faced with the economic, strategic and geopolitical challenges of cloud dependency, the response cannot be brutal or ideological. An effective transition depends on a gradual, structured approach that is aligned with the company's business objectives and the support of an expert agency.
Step 1: Audit your current dependence on cloud services
For Belgian and European SMEs, the first step is to quantify precisely their exhibition:
- Full inventory from cloud services and software used
- Identifying the players (American, European, other)
- Cost estimates (licences, storage, computing)
- Evaluation of alternatives available in Europe
- Risk analysis vendor lock-in
This phase of AI consulting enables a factual diagnosis to be made before any strategic decisions are taken.
Stage 2: Gradual integration of European AI agents
La digital transformation company can draw on emerging European solutions:
- Exploring generative AI European (Mistral AI, Aleph Alpha)
- Deployment of AI agents for the’intelligent automation company
- Use of orchestration platforms open source (Langchain, n8n)
- Team training at large language models (LLM)
L’AI adoption in business does not require a sudden break, but a gradual transition.
Stage 3: Developing hybrid agentic artificial intelligence
For advanced uses, a hybrid approach optimises sovereignty and performance:
- Multi-agent systems combining European and American solutions
- Architecture Transformer tailored to specific needs
- Data sovereignty critical European infrastructure
- Interoperability guarantee to prevent lock-outs
L’artificial intelligence agentic represents the future of’automation, The PAPAR cycle (Plan, Act, Perceive, Analyse, Adjust) requires robust infrastructures.
